Kurdistan Region of Iraq : Assessing the Economic and Social Impact of the Syrian Conflict and ISIS.

The Kurdistan region of Iraq is facing an economic and humanitarian crisis as a result of the influx of Syrian refugees which began in 2012 and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 2014. The region's population increased by 28 percent over a short period, placing strains on the local economy,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bank, World.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Herndon : World Bank Publications, 2015.
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Table of Contents:
  • Cover
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • Overview
  • The KRG Is Facing a Multifaceted Crisis Compounding Economic and Humanitarian Risks
  • To Manage the Impact of These Shocks, KRG Will Need Additional Resources to Restore Access to Public Services
  • These Stabilization Assessment Findings and Main Channels of Impacts Are Subsequently Elaborated
  • The Refugee and IDP Crises Have Imposed Substantial Strains on the Social Sectors, and Additional Resources Are Needed to Address Humanitarian Issues
  • The Crisis Increased the Stress on Infrastructure, Including Water, Solid Waste Management, Electricity, and Transport Sectors: The Stabilization Cost Is Enormous
  • Conclusions
  • Notes
  • Introduction
  • Notes
  • 1. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impact of the Conflict
  • Precrises Macroeconomic Situation
  • Impact of Crises and Stabilization Assessment
  • Notes
  • 2. Social Development Impact of the Conflict
  • Health Sector
  • Education Sector
  • Food Security and Agricultural Livelihoods
  • Poverty and Welfare
  • Estimating the Welfare Impact of the Shocks, 2012-15
  • Social Assistance and Labor
  • Housing and Shelter
  • Social Cohesion and Citizen Security
  • Precrisis Situation
  • Notes
  • 3. Impact of the Conflict on Infrastructure
  • Water and Sanitation Sector
  • Solid Waste Management
  • Electricity Sector
  • Transportation Sector
  • Notes
  • Appendixes
  • A. KRG Impact Assessment, 2012-14
  • B. Methodology: KRG Economic and Social Impact Assessment
  • C. Simulation Model: Fiscal Impact of the Conflict
  • D. Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of IDPs
  • E. Dohuk Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons
  • F. Erbil Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons
  • G. Sulaymaniyah Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons
  • H. Estimates of the Economic Impact of the ISIS Crisis Attributable to Trade.
  • I. Iraq and KRI Microfinance Sector Assessment
  • J. Poverty and Welfare Assessment: Methodology
  • K. Annotated Methodology: Health Sector
  • Bibliography
  • Box
  • 1.1 Accounting for the Impact of the Budget Freeze
  • Figures
  • 1.1 KRI GDP at Current Prices, 2004-11
  • 1.2 KRG Economic Composition of Public Expenditures, 2013
  • 1.3 Number of Local and Foreign Registered Firms: Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Dohuk Governorates, 2008-14
  • 1.4 KRI-Licensed Investment Project Capital, 2006-14
  • 1.5 KRI Investment, by Sector, November 2006 through September 7, 2014
  • 1.6 Installed Plants in Industry Sector, July 2014
  • 1.7 Imports from the World and Turkey to KRI, 2009-13
  • 1.8 Public Revenues: Baseline and Counterfactual (No Budget Shock) Scenarios, 2011-15
  • 1.9 Point Impact of IDPs on Monetary Well-Being of KRI Residents, 2014
  • 1.10 Level of Consumer Price Index, January 2010 through September 2014
  • 1.11 Iraq: Trade Flows (Including Oil), January 2014 through July 2014
  • 1.12 Iraq: Monthly Imports from Neighboring Countries, January 2014 through July 2014
  • 1.13 Iraq: Monthly Exports to Neighboring Countries (Including Oil), January 2014 through July 2014
  • 1.14 Customs Revenues, January 2013 through August 2014
  • 1.15 Tourist Arrivals in KRI, 2012-14
  • 2.1 Per Capita Health Expenditures in KRI, 2008-11
  • 2.2 KRG Capital Investment, 2008-11
  • 2.3 Number of Hospital Beds, by Governorate and Public-Private Mix
  • 2.4 Recurrent Health Expenditure in KRI, 2007-13
  • 2.5 Impact on PHC Services and Hospital Per Capita Expenditures, 2011-13
  • 2.6 Impact of Budgetary Crisis versus Refugees and IDPs Crises on Per Capita Expenditure, 2013 and 2014
  • 2.7 Foreign Labor Inflow to KRI
  • 2.8 Size of the Labor Force, by Private-Public Sector, 2011-13
  • 2.9 Labor Force, by Sector, 2012 and 2013.
  • 2.10 Shelter Trends for IDPs in KRI, June 25, 2014, to September 28, 2014
  • 2.11 CPI Indicators for Rent and General Prices, January 2012 to January 2015
  • 2.12 Estimated Number of Households Requiring Noncamp Housing in 60/40 Scenario
  • 2.13 Monthly Civilian Deaths by Violence, January 1, 2009, through September 1, 2013
  • 3.1 Fiscal Cost of Electricity Delivery in KRI, 2010-15
  • C.1 Simulation Model: Impact of the Conflict
  • H.1 Import Demand and Export Supply
  • I.1 Microfinance Industry Outreach
  • I.2 ISIS Conflict and Associated Instability Impact on Lending Activity in Iraq's Microfinance Sector, 2010-14
  • I.3 Substantial Increase Observed in PAR over 30 Days among Iraqi and KRI MFIs, 2010-14
  • Maps
  • 1.1 Diversion of Trade Routes
  • E.1 Dohuk Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons
  • F.1 Erbil Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons
  • G.1 Sulaymaniyah Governorate: Internally Displaced Persons
  • Photos
  • O.1 Children in Arbat Camp in Sulaymaniyah Governorate
  • 1.1 Child in Arbat Camp in Sulaymaniyah Governorate
  • 2.1 Darashakran Refugee Camp in Erbil Governorate
  • 3.1 Gawilan Refugee Camp in Dohuk Governorate
  • 3.2 Kawergosk Refugee Camp in Erbil Governorate
  • Tables
  • 0.1 Stabilization Assessment, 2015 Projection
  • 1.1 Revenue and Expenditures, 2010-14
  • 1.2 Comparative Indexes, KRI versus Iraq
  • 2.1 Impact Assessment for the Health Sector, October 2012 to September 2014
  • 2.2 Stabilization Assessment for the Health Sector, 2015
  • 2.3 Stabilization Assessment, by Scenario, 2015
  • 2.4 KRI Basic Education: Statistics on Students, Schools, and Teachers, 2008 and 2013
  • 2.5 Dohuk: Number of Refugee Shelters in Schools as of September 1, 2014
  • 2.6 KRG Education Sector Expenditures, Actual Spending 2008-12
  • 2.7 Education Sector Stabilization Assessment, 2015 Projection.
  • 2.8 Stabilization Assessment for Food Security and Agricultural Livelihoods, 2015
  • 2.9 Distribution of Population, by Gender and Age Ranges, 2014
  • 2.10 Population Projections for 2014, Different Scenarios
  • 2.11 Population Projections, Baseline Scenario, 2015
  • 2.12 Population Projections, Lower Scenario, 2015
  • 2.13 Population Projections, Upper Scenario, 2015
  • 2.14 KRI GRP Growth, by Sector, Estimates
  • 2.15 KRI Employment-Output Elasticities (Estimates), Population between 18 and 60 Years
  • 2.16 Elasticity of Poverty to Economic Growth, 2013-15
  • 2.17 Aggregate Impacts on Poverty, Assuming No Growth in Public Transfers, 2012-15
  • 2.18 Stabilization Costs, Assuming No Growth in Public Transfers, 2015
  • 2.19 Family and Disability Allowances, by Governorates, 2010-14
  • 2.20 Employment and Unemployment Rates, 2012 and 2013
  • 2.21 Fiscal Impact, 2015
  • 2.22 Stabilization Assessment, 2015
  • 3.1 Estimated Impact on Water Demand, 2012-14
  • 3.2 Estimated Needs of Refugees and IDPs, 2015 Projection
  • 3.3 Stabilization Assessment for Solid Waste Management, 2015 Projection
  • 3.4 Stabilization Assessment for the Electricity Sector, 2015 Projection
  • 3.5 Distribution of Road Network in KRG Governorates
  • 3.6 Construction and Maintenance Expenditures in the Road Sector Excluding Municipal Road Network, 2010-13
  • 3.7 Construction and Maintenance Expenditures in the Road Sector, Municipal Road Network, 2010-13
  • A.1 KRG Impact Assessment, 2012-14
  • I.1 Microfinance Providers as of 2012
  • K.1 Actual Expenditure Variables
  • K.2 Counterfactual Per Capita Expenditure Variables
  • K.3 Population Variables
  • K.4 Impact Assessment
  • K.5 Stabilization Assessment.